India still faces one-in-three chance of credit rating downgrade: S&P

10 Oct 2012 Evaluate

Indian government’s all recent reform measures that were said to be aimed to avert any rating downgrade might get a jolt, as the ratings agency Standard & Poor's (S&P) has warned that India still faces a one-in-three chance of a credit rating downgrade within the next 24 months despite a new drive for economic reform. Reiterating its earlier stance, the rating agency has said that if growth prospects and external position worsen, or fiscal reforms slow, there is significant chance of downgrading India's credit rating.

In a report released on Oct 10, it said that ‘a downgrade is likely if the country's economic growth prospects dim, its external position deteriorates, its political climate worsens, or fiscal reforms slow.'

S&P had downgraded India's rating outlook to negative from stable in April, which presently stands at BBB-, one notch above junk grade and the lowest investment rating in the BRIC economies. However, it said that India's outlook can be revised back to stable, if the government goes ahead with steps to reduce structural fiscal deficits, improve the investment climate, and increase growth prospects.

The rating agency further projects the current account deficit for the financial year to be 3.5 percent of GDP, below last year's 4.5 percent, given the inflow of foreign direct investment, and portfolio investments. However, S&P expects the government's fiscal deficit to be higher than the government's budgeted estimate, at 6 percent of GDP for the financial year ending in March.

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