Domestic auto demand to decline over 20% in FY21: Fitch

19 Aug 2020 Evaluate

International rating agency Fitch in its latest report has said that the domestic auto demand continues to face several challenges and forecasted the overall industry volume declining by more than 20% this fiscal year (FY21). It added that this forecast could be revised down if the extent and the magnitude of the pandemic are worse than they expect. Attributing the marginal improvement in July volumes to pent-up demand following easing of lockdown restrictions, Fitch said the problems facing the auto industry remains unabated.

The economic fallout from the pandemic has exacerbated the weak consumer sentiment that was dampened by higher cost of ownership under BS-VI emission standards adopted from this April. The report said this is likely to constrain demand from first-time car-buyers as well as upgraders, despite their preference for private transportation due to hygiene reasons. Likely curtailment in private and public investments will weigh on demand for commercial vehicles (CVs), particularly medium and heavy commercial vehicles which are used in more cyclical end-markets.

It noted that the pandemic has also reduced availability of financing as lenders exercise caution, particularly to weaker borrowers who form a significant customer base for CVs. After a washout in the first quarter, monthly volume for passenger vehicles (PVs) improved in July by 73 percent from June, while that of two-wheelers rose by 26 percent, as the lockdowns were gradually lifted. But on an annualised basis, car volume was lower by 4 percent in July, and for two-wheelers was 15 percent down, against 50 percent and 39 percent plunge, respectively, in June.

As per the report, within PVs, demand for utility vehicles increased 14 per cent year-on-year in July after a 31 percent decline in June, indicating the shift in consumer preference towards compact utility vehicles. On the other hand, CV volumes continued to fall more sharply in July compared to PVs, while volumes for medium and heavy CVs continued to remain weak, with the industry seeing volumes plunging 90 percent in Q1. However, volumes of light commercial vehicles fared better after an 80 percent decline for the segment in Q1.

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