India’s real GDP likely to shrink by 10.9% in FY21: SBI Ecowrap

02 Sep 2020 Evaluate

State Bank of India's (SBI) research report – Ecowrap has said that India’s real Gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to shrink by 10.9 percent in the current fiscal year (FY21). It had earlier estimated real GDP at (-) 6.8 percent for FY21. It estimates Q2 real GDP decline in the range of (-) 12 percent to (-) 15 percent, while Q3 GDP is seen between (-) 5 percent and (-) 10 percent. Q4 is expected to be in (-) 2 percent to (-) 5 percent range.

The report stated that the country’s economy has suffered its worst slump on record in April-June quarter of current fiscal year (Q1FY21), with the GDP contracting by 23.9 percent, due to the nationwide lockdown imposed on March 25, 2020, in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic and is much worse than market and its estimates.

According to the report, as anticipated private final consumption expenditure (PFCE) growth collapsed as COVID-19 containment measures reduced consumption to mostly essential items. With investment demand not seeing recovery due to unutilised capacity, it said the share of private consumption expenditure will remain on the higher side in overall GDP estimate. It said ‘assuming that it remains at 57 percent of GDP in nominal terms, we will see at least around 14 percent decline in PFCE growth in FY21, as against an average of 12 per cent growth for the nine-year period ended FY20.’ It added that this indicates an average swing of 26 percent in current fiscal indicating a consumption washout.

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