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India among large emerging market sovereigns to have highest debt burden by 2021: Moody's

02 Sep 2020 Evaluate

Moody's Investors Service has said India will be among the large emerging market sovereigns to have highest debt burden by 2021. It stated that the coronavirus pandemic-induced deterioration in growth and fiscal dynamics will leave most large emerging market sovereigns with higher debt burdens over the next few years. Further, it said in India, increased stress within the financial system, among banks and non-bank financial companies, raises contingent liability risks to the sovereign.

It stated despite steps toward the resolution of high non-performing loans, the banking system continues to suffer from weak asset quality, and low loan-loss coverage and capital adequacy. This is especially the case for state-owned banks, which account for around 70 per cent of total banking system assets. It added lingering fragilities in the sector are likely to be compounded by a prolonged period of subdued economic activity compared to pre-coronavirus levels.

Besides, It said ‘we expect government debt in the large emerging market sovereigns to rise by almost 10 percentage points of GDP on average by the end of 2021 from 2019 levels, driven primarily by wider primary deficits, although some are likely to see higher interest payments contributing to higher debt. It mentioned debt burdens in Brazil, India and South Africa will rise to among the highest across the large emerging market sovereigns by 2021.

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