India’s GDP likely to contract by 20% in Q1FY21: Care Ratings

20 Aug 2020 Evaluate

Care Ratings in its latest report has said that India’s gross domestic product (GDP) is likely to contract by 20% during the first quarter of the current fiscal (Q1FY21) on account of the COVID-19 pandemic-induced disruptions. It said ‘notwithstanding the fact that considerable uncertainty prevails regarding the quarterly economic performance, taking cognizance of the adverse impact of lockdown we are pegging the real GDP growth at (-) 20% Y-o-Y for Q1 FY21’.

The agency said disruptions caused by the countrywide lockdown crippled most economic and commercial activities across the country as has been depicted by various high frequency indicators slipping into red during these months. Although the government had exempted certain select activities pertaining to agriculture, banking including NBFCs and HFCs, construction activities in rural areas from lockdown restrictions, these activities have remained muted due to labour shortages and other operational issues.

It said gross value added (GVA) is expected to have contracted by nearly 19.9% in Q1 FY21, led by broad based contraction across sectors, barring agriculture and public expenditure. It noted that low tax collections weighed on GDP, dragging down the growth further. Among the eight sectors under the broad categorisation of GVA, two sectors namely - agriculture, forestry and fishing and public administration; defence and other services - are expected to register positive growth rates, while others are expected to de-grow in Q1 FY21.

As per the report, services sector may contract by 16.8%, but increase in government expenditure will provide modest support. Increase in spending on public administration by the government following announcement of stimulus measures is expected to drive growth in the sector in Q1 FY21. On demand side, the rating agency said investment scenario has been dwindling with lower capacity utilization (below 70%). Private sector consumption remained below par as a side effect of lockdown.

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