Banks likely to restructure Rs 8.4 lakh crore of loans: Ind-Ra

20 Aug 2020 Evaluate

India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) in its latest report has said that banks are likely to restructure up to Rs 8.4 lakh crore of loans, or 7.7 percent of the overall system's credit, under the Reserve Bank of India’s proposed loan restructuring scheme to bring down Covid-related stress. It noted that out of the overall loans set to be restructured, almost 60 percent of them were susceptible to slip into the non-performing assets (NPAs) category if not for the recast move, and the restructuring will help banks' bottomlines as the money to be set aside as provisions will be lower.

According to the report, unlike the earlier experience post the global financial crisis, where nearly 90 percent of the restructuring happened in the corporate loans, the non-corporate segment, which includes small businesses, agricultural loans and retail lending, will account for a higher share this time. It also estimated the total amount of non-corporate loans to be recast at Rs 2.1 lakh crore. It noted that the non-corporate segment was showing signs of stress even before the start of the pandemic, when things were seeming to be normalising in the corporate space.

In the corporate segment, the report said Rs 4 lakh crore of loans were already stressed before COVID-19 struck and the same have gone up by over Rs 2.5 lakh crore. It also said the jump in the non-corporate segment is more pronounced, as the stressed portion was only Rs 70,000 crore, which is now slated to go up to Rs 2.1 lakh crore. Within the corporate segment, it said the restructuring may range from Rs 3.3 lakh crore to Rs 6.3 lakh crore, depending on the strategies the banks adopt. It added that the range is so wide because it feels 53 percent of the pool is at high risk, while 47 percent is at moderate risk.

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