The Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry of India (Assocham) has said that the rate of decline in output of core segments of the economy has been arrested considerably in July 2020. In line with an evaluation by Assocham, cement, steel and coal, which suffered heavy declines in the first quarter, recovered significantly in July 2020, even though the annualised numbers reflect contraction. It also said within the broader index of industrial production, manufacturing has the largest of the weight. Having fallen off the cliff by 40.7 percent during the April-June quarter, it is likely to witness a rebound when July IIP data is released. However, turnaround to positive growth trajectory could be some time away.
Industry chamber has stated that after a contraction of 15 percent in Q1 of 2020-21 over the same quarter in the previous fiscal, coal production dropped at a much lesser pace of 5.7 per cent in July. Likewise, cement output in July dropped by 13.5 percent in the month after witnessing a sharp contraction of 38.3 percent in April-June. Fall in steel output too has been arrested to 16.4 percent in July, after a drop of 56.8 percent for the April-June period. The Assocham analysis, however, takes production and consumption at the same level due to absence of data about the possible inventory.
It further said other vital sectors of the economy like electricity and construction too are expected to restore much of their lost traction. It believes that agriculture and allied sector, which remains the bright spot in the challenging times, is likely to retain the positive trajectory, thus boosting segments like tractors, chemicals, fertiliser, two-wheelers and non-discretionary consumption.
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