Moody's Investors Service in its latest report has said that India's auto sector is likely to face challenges this year, with the country's economy predicted to contract in 2020 amid the pandemic. It added that auto unit sales will decline at least 30% in 2020, following a decline of over 40% in the seven months through July. It said ‘the lower annual decline reflects our expectation of a pickup in economic activity during the remainder of 2020, which also includes the festive period - October through December’.
The agency said a second wave of infections and extension of lockdowns cast a shadow of risk on these forecasts. Also, tighter lending criteria could limit liquidity available for consumers and auto dealers. As per the report, looking ahead, unit sales will likely grow around 20 per cent in 2021, though clearly on a lower base. Moreover, it will take at least another four years for India's unit sales to recover to pre-pandemic levels.
On the other hand, the global automotive industry's outlook has been changed to stable from negative. It said the stable outlook for the global automotive industry reflects rising sales through 2021, with continued, but slow, increases through 2023. Nevertheless, auto shipments won't recover to pre-pandemic levels until the middle of the decade. It noted that the coronavirus-driven downturn in unit sales is significantly worse than the 2009 decline.
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