Domestic rating agency ICRA in its latest report has said that not paying the full Goods and Services Tax (GST) compensations by the Centre is among the factors which may result in up to Rs 3 lakh crore cut in capital expenditure (capex) by the states in FY21. It noted that the borrowing alternative offered by the Centre to make up for the shortfall in the promised compensation will lead to the states' fiscal deficits widening to 4.25 - 5.52 percent. It added that the compensation cess has been estimated at Rs 3 lakh crore in this current financial year, of which only Rs 65,000 crore has been collected, leaving a shortfall due to states of Rs 2.35 lakh crore.
The report further said in the GST Council meeting held on August 27, the government pegged the gap between the GST compensation requirement of the state governments for FY21 and the expected GST cess collections at Rs 2.35 lakh crore. It said the Centre had offered two options to the state governments for bridging this gap of Rs 2.35 lakh crore, which vary in terms of the amount that can be borrowed, the source of borrowing, rate of interest on borrowings, payment of interest, charge on cess collected after the five-year GST transition period ends in July 2022.
The rating agency cautions that the states may be forced to curtail their aggregate capital spending by as much as Rs 1-3.4 lakh crore in FY21, on account of the anticipated shortfalls in GST compensation and Central tax devolution (CTD), despite the options for additional borrowings put forth by the GoI. It can be noted that capital expenditure is considered as the most productive of any government's expenses because of its ability to lead to what is called trickle-down benefits.
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