India’s GDP growth likely to contract by 9% in FY21: Crisil

11 Sep 2020 Evaluate

Ratings agency Crisil in its latest report has sharply lowered its forecast for India's gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the current fiscal 2020-21 (FY21) to (-) 9 percent as against its earlier estimate of (-) 5 percent projected in May, as the coronavirus infections are yet to peak and the government is not providing adequate direct fiscal support. It noted that the 9 percent contraction will be the highest since the 1950s.

According to the report, a stretched fiscal position has constrained the government from spending more to support the economy. It noted that till date, the policy push to growth remains muted, except in pockets. It also stated that if the pandemic were to peak out in September-October, GDP growth could move into mild positive territory towards the end of this fiscal. It indicated that with over 42 lakh COVID-19 cases, India overtakes Brazil to become second worst-hit country. It added that the pandemic will leave a permanent scar even as many analysts have been pitching for a sharp rebound or a v-shaped recovery.

The report expects a permanent loss of 13 percent of real GDP over the medium term, pegging its value in nominal terms at Rs 30 lakh crore and added that this is much higher than a 3 percent permanent hit to GDP in Asia-Pacific economies estimated by its parent S&P. It said a catch-up with the pre-pandemic trend value of real GDP would require average real GDP growth to surge to 13 percent annually for the next three fiscals, which is a feat never accomplished by India before. It pegged the September quarter GDP to contract by 12 percent, attributing the same to higher economic activity seen in many indicators.

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