India’s GDP likely to see sharper contraction of 8-8.2% in FY21: CARE Ratings

14 Sep 2020 Evaluate

Domestic rating agency CARE Ratings has said India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is likely to see a sharper contraction of 8-8.2 percent in the current financial year (FY21) under the assumption of there being no fiscal stimulus from the government. It said this would imply that there would be no increase in capital expenditure (capex) during the year beyond what is provided in the Budget. Earlier, it had a projection of 6.4 percent de-growth in GDP for FY21, based on the expected progress of the lockdown and unlock processes which were prevalent in the country at that time.

According to the report, the decline in GDP growth by around 8 percent would also be associated with a decline in the gross fixed capital formation. It said the same would hold for consumption growth that will be affected by lower growth in income across all categories of consumers. However, it said the sharp fall in GDP growth in FY21 would provide the cushion of a faster pace of growth in FY22 depending on the rate at which various sectors get back on track. It noted that the GDP fall of about 24 percent in the first quarter was slightly higher than its expectations of a 20.2 percent contraction. The element which came in as a surprise was the growth in the public administration, defence and other services segments at (-) 10.3 percent.

The rating agency further stated that the factors that are working well in the economy are more in the agricultural sector as well as the financial domain where a good monsoon as well as the efforts of the government and the RBI to enhance the flow of credit have shown some positive tendencies. It also said the unlock process has been gradual, and it needs to be seen whether there is continuity in the approach which will have a bearing on the resumption of some services and the attainment of minimum capacity utilisation in these sectors.

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