Indian economy likely to contract by 9% in FY21: S&P

15 Sep 2020 Evaluate

S&P Global Ratings has said that India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is likely to contract by 9 percent in the current financial year (FY21).  Earlier, it had a projection of 5 percent de-growth in GDP for FY21. It said that rising coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases in the country will keep private spending and investment lower for longer. For 2021-22 fiscal, it expects economic growth at 10 percent. 

The US-based rating agency said risks to the growth outlook include a weaker recovery in informal sectors of the economy and deeper economic losses for micro and small enterprises. In addition, it said if credit quality worsens materially following the expiration of loan moratoriums, the recovery will slow. It pointed out that one factor that presents potential upside to growth is the availability of a widely-distributed COVID vaccine earlier than its current estimate around mid-2021. It added that the 23.9 percent contraction in for April-June quarter of fiscal year 2020-21 (Q1FY21) was larger than expected.

While India eased lockdowns in June, S&P believed the pandemic will continue to restrain economic activity. It said as long as the virus spread remains uncontained, consumers will be cautious in going out and spending and firms will be under strain. Adding further, it said even as industrial activity is recovering faster than services, high frequency indicators suggest that output is still lower relative to the same period last year and hence growth for the July–September quarter will be negative year on year. The potential for further monetary support is curbed by India's inflation worries.

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