Monetary policy has limitations, govt should act more to revive economy: SBI economists

15 Sep 2020 Evaluate

The State Bank of India (SBI) economists said in a note that the country needs to adopt an activist fiscal policy rather than depending on the monetary accommodation alone for turning the economic fortunes. Using a formula, they estimated the lower bound of interest rates - below which the gains of rate cuts start reversing - at 3.5 per cent for India as against the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) policy repo rate of 4 per cent.

The RBI has cut rates by a cumulative 1.15 percentage points since the onset of the coronavirus pandemic but paused at the last review because of high inflation. The government has promised to spend an additional less than 2 per cent of the GDP as part of a stimulus package to help the economy which is much lower than what other nations have done. They said ‘we believe any further rate cuts will have the unintended impact on the economy. Instead, we strongly recommend for India an activist fiscal policy’. They added fiscal expansion is a must.

They said providing fiscal stimulus is the most effective solution in the current pandemic and it should be taken up immediately by India just like other countries. They said countries are providing sizable fiscal support through budgetary measures, and off-budget liquidity support measures taken by the governments in the US and Europe to protect vulnerable firms and employees during the lockdown have largely met their goals.

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