India’s GDP growth likely to decline by 12.6% in FY21: NCAER

28 Sep 2020 Evaluate

Economic think-tank National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) in its quarterly review of the economy has said that India’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth is likely to decline by 12.6 percent during the current financial year (FY21) on account of the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the business activities. The NCAER's May 2020 Quarterly Review of the Economy (QRE) and June 2020 QRE Update had assessed that the economy would contract by 26 percent in the first quarter of the fiscal.

As per the official estimates, India's economy has suffered its worst slump on record in April-June quarter of current fiscal year (Q1FY21), with the gross domestic product (GDP) contracting by 23.9% as the coronavirus-related lockdowns weighed on the already-declining consumer demand and investment. Therefore, it said ‘we are now forecasting that y-o-y growth will remain negative through Q2, Q3 and Q4 at (-) 12.7 per cent, (-) 8.6 per cent and (-) 6.2 per cent respectively. For the year as a whole, 2020-21 GDP will decline by (-) 12.6 percent.’

The NCAER review said that much will depend on how the spread of the disease plays out, how central and state governments respond to it and how workers and entrepreneurs respond to the disruption. All these factors are major unknowns at this time. It also noted that retail inflation has remained elevated at over 6 per cent, above the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) target inflation band of 2-6 per cent. It added that elevated inflation along with the steep contraction of the economy requires macroeconomic policy to navigate its way between two competing goals of reviving the economy and containing inflation.

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