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India’s economy likely to experience record contraction in current fiscal: S&P

28 Sep 2020 Evaluate

Global rating agency S&P in its latest report has said that India’s economy is likely to experience a record contraction in the current financial year (FY21) mainly due to the global Covid-19 pandemic, and the real GDP growth is expected to recover from next fiscal onwards. It said India’s weak fiscal settings will worsen further this year, constraining the government’s ability to aid the economy.

However, it said the country’s external settings have improved, helped by the rapid accumulation of foreign exchange reserves. It said ‘we are affirming our ‘BBB-’ long-term and ‘A-3’ short-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings on India.’ It stated the stable outlook reflects our view that India’s contraction in fiscal 2021 will be followed by a significant recovery, which will stabilise the country’s broader credit profile’.

It mentioned the sovereign credit ratings on India reflect the economy’s above-average long-term real GDP growth, sound external profile and evolving monetary settings. India’s democratic institutions promote policy stability and compromise, and also underpin the ratings. It added that these strengths are balanced against vulnerabilities stemming from the country’s low per-capita income and weak fiscal settings, including consistently elevated general government deficits and indebtedness.

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