ICRA revises India's GDP contraction to 11% from 9.5% for FY21

29 Sep 2020 Evaluate

Domestic rating agency ICRA has further revised down its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimate for the country and now expects the Indian economy to contract by 11 percent in FY21. The agency, which was earlier estimating a contraction of 9.5 percent, said the revision has been done as the rate of new COVID-19 infections remains elevated. It can be noted that some analysts have pegged the economy to contract by up to 14 percent after the release of the official GDP data for Q1FY21 which showed a 23.9 percent decline. The RBI is yet to give its estimate on the GDP and has been maintaining that it will be contracting.

The rating agency has stated that if the number for Q1FY21 gets revised down after data for the small businesses and less formal sectors becomes available, the overall GDP outcome for FY21 could be even worse than estimated by the 11 percent contraction. For the ongoing second quarter, it is maintaining its earlier estimate of a contraction of 12.4 percent. Besides, it has revised its projections for Q3FY21 and Q4FY21 and now expects contractions of 5.4 percent and 2.5 percent, respectively, in the two quarters which will imply a full year contraction of 11 percent.

As per the report, construction, trade, transport, hotels, communications and services related to broadcasting will recover with the longest lag and continue to underperform the rest of the economy. Activity in some sectors, especially those like travel, tourism and recreation, where social distancing is difficult, will depress economic activity. Additionally, it said the continued economic uncertainty and health concerns would result in a prolonged impact on consumption and investment decisions. It added that the revenue shock being experienced by the Central and the state governments would limit the extent of fiscal support that may be forthcoming and result in protracted fears about deferral of both the capex and the release of timely payments.

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