September inflation shockingly spurts to 10-months high at 7.81%

15 Oct 2012 Evaluate

Limiting the room for an interest-rate cut to revive the economy, the wholesale price index (WPI), India's main inflation gauge, unexpectedly spurted to its 10 months high level at 7.81% for the month of September, as compared to 7.55% (Provisional) for the previous month, but lower than the rate of 10% during the corresponding month of the previous year.

The much awaited figure was worse than the consensus estimates of 7.70%. Build up inflation in the financial year so far was 4.60% compared to a buildup of 4.48% in the corresponding period of the previous year. Moreover, the annual reading for the month of July was revised sharply higher to 7.52% from earlier of 6.87%.

The murky figure comes in the wake of government increasing the prices of heavily subsidized diesel on September 13 to rein in spending, with the index for fuel and power group with a weightage of 14.91% in index blowing by 4.00% to 188.3 from 181.00 in the previous month, due to higher prices of aviation turbine fuel (13%), light diesel oil (11%), naphtha and high speed diesel (9% each), furnace oil (7%) and kerosene (1%).  However, the prices of bitumen (1%) declined.

Further, the index for Manufactured Products, which carries weight of almost 65% in the index, rose by 0.5% to 147.7 from 146.9 for the previous month. The index for ‘Food Articles’ group rose by 1.2% to 166.5 from 164.5 in the previous month.

Meanwhile, the index for primary articles group, which has a weightage of 20.12% in overall WPI and includes food, non-food and minerals group too rose by 0.5% to 220.7 from 219.5 for the previous month. The index for ‘Food Articles’ group rose by 0.6% to 212.7 from 211.4 in the previous month. However, the index for ‘Non Food Articles’ group declined by 2.1% at 202.4 (Provisional) from 206.8 (Provisional) for the previous month. Furthermore, the index for ‘Minerals’ group rose by 4.9% to 347.6 (Provisional) from 331.3 (Provisional) for the previous month.

Faced with a big hole in the budget and the prospect of losing its investment grade credit rating, the government hiked prices of heavily subsidized diesel on September 13, the impact of which is reflected on India’s main inflation guage, which has spurted to 10 months high level, which in turn seems to limiting RBI’s abilities of easing monetary policy. However, still there are minute chances that RBI temporarily dropping its fight against inflation, would reciprocate to the government gestures, by slashing rates in its upcoming second quarterly monetary policy review on October 30, 2012.

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