Gross NPAs of banks likely to jump to 11.5% by end of FY21: CARE Rating

14 Oct 2020 Evaluate

CARE Rating has said Indian banks may restructure around 4-5 percent of the overall bank credit outstanding while the Gross NPA (non-performing assets) ratio is likely to be 11-11.5 percent by end of current financial year (FY21). Restructuring refers to relaxing the repayment terms of borrowers. This is done either by cutting interest rates, providing a loan moratorium or extending the repayment period. Banks need to set aside a higher amount as provisions for restructured loans. This will impact their profitability.

Further, it said the asset quality data post the Covid-19 lockdown is uncertain due to a developing regulatory scenario; multiple stakeholder objectives and moratorium computation with various firms have varying ways of computing moratorium. The GNPA ratio of SCBs stood at 8.2 percent in Q1FY21 against 9.5 percent in Q1FY20. Scheduled Commercial Banks’ asset quality has seen some improvement (GNPA reduction) due to recoveries and higher write-offs.

It said the end of FY21 GNPA numbers would move significantly ahead from the 8.5 per cent level witnessed at the end of FY20, but would be moderated by the one-time restructuring scheme and ongoing write-offs. The additions to the GNPAs would primarily from loans under SMA-1 (special mention category) and SMA-2 categories which were under moratorium and not eligible for restructuring.

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