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Covid-19 to significantly erode three years of fiscal consolidation gains of states: RBI

28 Oct 2020 Evaluate

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its study of the state budgets of 2020-21, has said that the additional outgo to battle the impact of coronavirus disease (covid-19) pandemic will significantly erode the fiscal consolidation achieved by the state governments in the past three years. It also said that Gross Fiscal Deficit (GFD) of the states would spiral during the current fiscal (FY21).

The report stated that states have budgeted their consolidated GFD at 2.8 percent of GDP in 2020-21, however, the COVID-19 pandemic may alter budget estimates significantly, eroding the gains of consolidation secured in the preceding three years - the average GFD for states that presented their budgets before the outbreak of COVID-19 is 2.4 percent of GSDP, while the average for budgets presented post-lockdown is 4.6 percent. Observing that the quality of spending and the credibility of state budgets will assume critical importance, it said the next few years are going to be challenging for the states. It added that they have played an important role in the frontline of the defence against the pandemic. 

It said going forward, they need to remain empowered to provide growth impulses to the Indian economy and build resilience against future pandemics as well. It noted that sustaining the recovery from the pandemic will reshape state finances, entailing boosting investment in health care systems and other social safety nets in line with the states' demographic and co-morbidity profiles. They need to remain empowered with effective strategies to drive through these difficult times. Sub-national fiscal policy has to be judicious and calibrated. 

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