Rating agency ICRA in its latest report has said that states are likely to cut capital outlay on infrastructure by up to 40 percent, with coronavirus disease (covid-19) pandemic severely impacting revenues of state governments, and additional expenditure towards healthcare and public welfare. It noted that major states together had a budgeted capital outlay of over Rs 5.7 lakh crore for 2020-21 as against revised estimate of Rs 5.1 lakh crore in 2019-20.
According to the report, some states could witness a steeper decline depending on the extent of additional borrowings, which is availed. It noted that with covid-19 and the related slowdown in the economic activities, states are staring at a significant decline in their revenues, which in turn could push them to cut down on discretionary expenditure including deferment of capital outlay. Furthermore, it said of the Rs 111 trillion worth infrastructure investments planned under the National Infrastructure Pipeline (NIP), about 40 percent is from state governments.
ICRA has stated that NIP envisages the state’s budgetary outlay on capital investments to be around 1.7 percent of GDP and states are expected to fund 24-26 per cent of the total expenditure under NIP. To bridge the shortfall, it said states’ unconditional borrowing limit has been raised from 3 per cent of gross state domestic product (GSDP) to 4 per cent of GSDP for 2020-21. It added that States also have the option of availing another 1 per cent of the GSDP, but on completing specified reforms.
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