India’s GDP to contract 8.6% in Q2 FY21: RBI official

12 Nov 2020 Evaluate

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) official has said that the country’s GDP is likely to contract by 8.6 percent for second quarter of current financial year (Q2FY21), which means India will enter into a recession for the first time in history in the first half of this fiscal with two successive quarters of negative growth due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

The pandemic-induced lockdowns had led to a steep contraction of 23.9 percent in the GDP for the April-June quarter as compared to the same period a year ago. The RBI has estimated that the economy will contract by 9.5 percent for the full fiscal year. India has entered a technical recession in the first half of 2020-21 for the first time in its history with Q2 2020-21 likely to record the second successive quarter of GDP contraction, as per the article titled 'Economic Activity Index', authored by Pankaj Kumar of the Monetary Policy Department.

It, however, added that the contraction is ebbing with gradual normalisation in activities and expected to be short-lived. It said the index is constructed from 27 monthly indicators using a dynamic factor model and suggests that the economy rebounded sharply from May/June 2020 with the reopening of the economy, with industry normalising faster than contact-intensive service sectors.

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