Rating agency ICRA in its latest report has said that twelve major state governments may have to undertake an aggregate cut of Rs 2.5-2.7 trillion in their budgeted capital spending in the current fiscal (FY21) to make up for shortfall in revenue due to coronavirus disease (covid-19) pandemic. It noted that the twelve states include Maharashtra, Punjab, Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh, Haryana, Karnataka, Kerala, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal. It has projected the aggregate debt of these 12 states to deteriorate sharply to 28.9 percent of Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) in FY21 from 21.9 percent of GSDP in FY19, and an estimated 22.3 percent of GSDP in FY20.
According to the report, the pandemic has dealt a sharp revenue shock to the state governments in the current fiscal. While the gap in GST compensation is largely proposed to be financed through additional borrowings, it said the expected substantial shortfall in central tax devolution would severely restrict the ability of the states to undertake growth-reviving capital expenditure in FY21. Given their limited flexibility to curtail or defer revenue spending, the agency's projections reveal a sharp widening of the combined revenue deficit of the states in its sample to Rs 5.8 trillion, or 3.9 per cent of its estimate of GSDP in FY21, from the level of Rs 82,200 crore budgeted by these states for FY21.
The report further stated that funding a revenue deficit of this magnitude would absorb a huge part of the enhanced borrowing limit of the state governments, leaving many of them with little option other than substantially compressing capital expenditure. It added that this would counteract the nascent economic recovery within their jurisdictions, and may further constrain a revival in revenues in the near term.
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