Stimulus 3.0 supportive for growth, but fiscal impact unclear: Fitch Solutions

17 Nov 2020 Evaluate

Fitch Solutions in its latest report has said that India's third tranche of stimulus measures (Stimulus 3.0) should support economic rebound over the coming quarters but the actual fiscal impact is difficult to ascertain. It also noted that the country’s fiscal deficit is likely to be 7.8 percent of the GDP in the Fiscal Year'21 (April 2020 to March 2021). It also said the Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme, for instance, spans across a five-year period, and their fiscal impact will likely only be seen from FY2021-22 onward.

Estimating using the outright fiscal outlays from this announcement, the report said ‘Stimulus 3.0' appears to suggest additional expenditure of Rs 1 lakh crore (0.44 per cent of FY2019/20 GDP). Moreover, it said the announcement did not outline any additional borrowing to finance these additional spending, which suggests a reallocation of FY2020/21 budget expenditure plans instead.

Recently, the government has announced another stimulus package, called Aatmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyaan 3.0, totaling Rs 2.65 lakh crore. The package included a boost to formal employment, the Production Linked (PLI) Scheme, an increase in the fertiliser subsidy and the rural employment programme, MGNREGA. Exactly a month after the 'Aatmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyaan 2.0' package – which included announcements regarding consumption and investment – was announced on October 12, the central government came out with its third round of stimulus package.

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