Markets likely to make flat-to-positive start on Friday

Indian markets ended lower with over a percent cut on Thursday, after 4 sessions of gains, following losses in global peers, as widening COVID-19 restrictions weighed on market sentiment. Today, the markets are likely to make flat-to-positive start tracking gains in global peers. Traders will be taking encouragement with ICRA’s report that the contraction in the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) may have narrowed to 9.5 per cent in the second quarter of the current fiscal from 23.9 per cent in the April-June quarter as the economy recovered from the lows of the pandemic-induced lockdown. Some support will come as the Reserve Bank announced to conduct simultaneous purchase and sale of government securities under open market operations (OMOs) for Rs 10,000 crore each on November 26. The decision was taken after a review of the current liquidity and financial conditions. Besides, investments through participatory notes (P-notes) in the Indian capital market surged to Rs 78,686 crore at October-end, making it the highest level in 14 months, on enhanced global liquidity and measures taken by the government back home. However, traders may be concerned as Global forecasting firm Oxford Economics revised downwards its India growth forecast over the medium term to an average 4.5 per cent over 2020-25, from its pre-pandemic projection of 6.5 per cent. In a research note, it said India's post-COVID-19 scars could be among the worst in the world. There may be some cautiousness with a private report that it would not be before 2022 that Indian businesses would be able to recover as most of them are adversely impacted due to Covid pandemic. Healthcare sector stocks will be in focus after Niti Aayog Member (Health) V K Paul said India’s overall spending on the health sector is low and the situation must be corrected. Emphasising that there is a need to request both the union and state governments to enhance spending on health, he said the COVID-19 experience will justify an increase in expenditure on health sector. There will be some reaction in oil & gas sector stocks with Oil Minister Dharmendra Pradhan’s statement that India will see an investment of Rs 10,000 crore in the next three years in setting up of LNG stations, a fuel that promises to revolutionalise long-haul transport with reduced cost and lesser emissions. Realty sector stocks will be in limelight with Crisil’s report that the financial capital has seen a 1.3 times increase in property registrations on lower duties, but FY21 is going to be a difficult year for the realty sector with primary sales likely to decline by 50 percent in top 10 cities. Meanwhile, Gland Pharma will make its stock market debut today. The initial public offering was oversubscribed by only the Qualified Institutional Buyers (QIB) while NIIs and retail investors failed to fully subscribe their portion.

The US markets ended higher on Thursday after fresh stimulus hopes buoyed investors' sentiment. Asian markets trade mostly in green with marginal gains on Friday as investors remained cautious over the short-term economic impact of the coronavirus as cases around the world continue to rise.

Back home, after gaining for fourth straight session, Indian equity benchmarks took a breather on Thursday and ended over a percent lower, as investors booked profit amid weak global cues. Markets made gap-down opening, as traders got anxious with a private report stated that India is among the few major nations among emerging and developing economies with higher inflation in October 2020 compared to December 2019 (pre-Covid levels). Also, among these nations, the rise in core inflation is the highest in India. However, local indices managed to cut all losses and traded flat with positive bias in afternoon session, as some support came with private report that overseas investors have pumped in $6.3 billion in Indian equity markets in three months ended September on attractive valuations, opening-up of the economy and resumption in business activities. Additional support also came with Former chief economic adviser Arvind Virmani’s statement that India’s Gross domestic product (GDP) is likely to contract 7.5 percent in the current fiscal (FY21) but will see a double-digit growth in 2021-22. He noted that the central government has come up with some noteworthy reforms, including Goods and Services Tax (GST), Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) and setting up of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). But, domestic markets failed to maintain positive momentum and fell sharply in final hour of trade as some concern remained among traders with the WTO's latest Trade Monitoring Report on G20 stating that there is a slowdown in the number of trade restrictive as well as facilitative measures on goods implemented by G-20 member countries between mid-May and mid-October, due to the sharp decline in overall global trade since the COVID-19 outbreak. Market participants also took a note of Credit rating agency, Moody's Investors Service’s report that it has upgraded India growth forecast to (-) 10.6 per cent for the current fiscal, from its earlier estimate of (-) 11.5 per cent. Meanwhile, the government has garnered Rs 72,480 crore so far through the direct tax dispute resolution scheme Vivad Se Vishwas. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 580.09 points or 1.31% to 43,599.96, while the CNX Nifty was down by 166.55 points or 1.29% to 12,771.70.