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India’s GDP likely to narrow appreciably to 9.5% in Q2FY21: ICRA

20 Nov 2020 Evaluate

Rating agency ICRA in its latest report has said that the Year-on-Year (YoY) contraction in India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (at constant 2011-12 prices) is expected to narrow appreciably to 9.5 percent in the second quarter of the current fiscal (Q2FY21) from 23.9 percent in Q1FY21, as the economy recovered from the lows of the pandemic-induced lockdown. The Central Statistics Office (CSO) will release the GDP data for the second quarter of FY21 on November 27.

Similarly, the report stated that the contraction in the Gross Value Added (GVA) at basic prices is expected to have moderated considerably to 8.5 per cent in the July-September quarter from 22.8 percent in the previous three months. It noted that the ease in GVA would be led by industry to (-) 9.3 percent from (-) 38.1 percent, driven primarily by manufacturing and construction and services to (-) 10.2 percent from (-) 20.6 percent). It also said a substantial recovery in manufacturing and construction is likely to underpin the expected improvement in the performance of the industrial GVA in the second quarter of the current fiscal.

According to the report, various sectors of manufacturing recorded an improvement in demand and volumes in the September quarter although the performance was admittedly uneven. In addition to the continued cost-cutting measures, it said the availability of raw material inventory that had been procured previously at subdued costs, supported the earnings of the manufacturing entities in the just-concluded quarter relative to Q1 FY2021.

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