Fitch Ratings has said that the government's coronavirus pandemic-driven renewed reform agenda has the potential to raise India's medium-term growth rate. Nevertheless, it said there are also downside pressures to growth and it will take time to assess whether the reforms are implemented effectively. It also noted that raising medium-term growth rates under these circumstances will require reforms to support investment and boost productivity and it will take time to assess whether the reforms are implemented effectively.
According to Fitch, the pandemic will slow medium-term growth, as damaged corporate balance sheets are expected to dampen investment for years. It pointed out that renewed asset-quality challenges in banks and generally fragile liquidity for non-bank financial companies could also constrain growth prospects and jeopardise the stability of the medium-term government debt/GDP trajectory. It stated that several reforms passed by Parliament since the pandemic set in, could lift medium-term growth prospects, including the agricultural reforms to give farmers more flexibility over where to sell their produce. It added that stripping out middle men, as the reform allows, could improve farmer incomes while reducing consumer prices.
It further said the government also intends to privatise some state-owned enterprises, of which more than 200 are owned by the central government and 800 by state governments. It said a wide-ranging privatisation push could be transformative. It also said the process of reforms in India remains especially complex and implementation at times has proven difficult.
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