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S&P Global Ratings retains forecast of 9% contraction in Indian economy for FY21

01 Dec 2020 Evaluate

S&P Global Ratings in its report on Asia Pacific has retained its forecast of 9 percent contraction in the Indian economy for the current fiscal (FY21), saying even though there are now upside risks to growth but it will wait for more signs that COVID infections have stabilised or fallen. It projected the Indian economy to grow at 10 percent in the next fiscal.

It said ‘we will wait for more signs that infections have stabilised or fallen, together with high-frequency activity data for the fiscal year third quarter, before changing our forecasts.’ Further, it stated that inflation should ease from recent highs, albeit gradually.

It mentioned ‘we project that headline consumer price inflation just above the mid-point of the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) forecast a range of 2 to 6 percent through 2021. One-off factors should ease, including food-supply disruptions and supply constraints related to earlier lockdowns. But the pass-through to core inflation, currently near 6 per cent, suggests that inflation persistence remains a challenge.’

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