Estimates show 'upside potential' for economy in FY21 amid faster-than-expected recovery: CEA

01 Dec 2020 Evaluate

Chief Economic Adviser (CEA) K V Subramanian has said that there is an upside potential in the estimates about the economy during the current financial year (FY21) amid a faster-than-expected recovery. He said the final print could be better than Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimates given by various institutions, including the Reserve Bank of India, which projected contraction of 9.5 percent during 2020-21. He also noted that with pick-up in manufacturing, India's economy recovered faster than expected in the September quarter (Q2) of fiscal year 2020-21 (FY21). The GDP clock a lower contraction of 7.5 percent in Q2FY21 as compared to the contraction of 23.9 percent in the first quarter of the 2020-21 fiscal (April 2020 to March 2021).

Compared with the estimates provided by several of the analysts, Subramanian said, the Q2 numbers, have been more encouraging, which were being reflected in the high frequency indicators earlier as well. He also said sustainability of the economic recovery depends critically on the spread of the pandemic, he said adding that while the peak of first wave was crossed in September, winter months must warrant caution. Giving outlook for the near future, he said, ‘we should be cautiously optimistic and the caution is warranted because economic impact is primarily due to the pandemic.’ Given the uncertainty, he said, it is difficult to predict if positive territory can be hit in the third or fourth quarter.

As far as the second half of the current fiscal is concerned, CEA said there is uncertainty although there is sharp recovery especially in the manufacturing sector. But given the uncertainty, he said ‘I think it would be difficult to say whether we will hit the positive in Q3 or Q4. My sense is that we should definitely be continuing this recovery provided that the pandemic remains in control.’ He pointed out that some sectors that are affected by social distancing will continue to experience demand slump till the time the pandemic does not go away. On food inflation, he said the prices are likely to soften in the third quarter of this fiscal year.

Create stable, long-term investment portfolio with strong, consistent stocks.

Start Research-backed Investing ...Now. Subscribe to Sapphire

About MoneyWorks4Me

MoneyWorks4Me is a SEBI-registered Investment Adviser (IA) dedicated to helping investors build long-term wealth through transparent, research-driven, conflict-free guidance. Founded in 2008, we started our journey as a Research Analyst (RA), providing deep fundamental analysis, intrinsic value insights, and long-term investing frameworks for Indian equities. In 2017, we transitioned to a full-fledged SEBI-registered Investment Adviser, strengthening our commitment to acting as a fiduciary—always putting the investor’s interest first.

Our Vision

To become India’s most trusted, research-powered fiduciary advisory platform—where every investor, regardless of experience, can make calm, confident, and well-reasoned investment decisions.

What Makes MoneyWorks4Me Different

Fiduciary-first advisory model.
As SEBI-registered IAs, we are legally and ethically bound to act in the best interests of our clients. We do not sell or distribute any financial products. This ensures our guidance is 100% unbiased and conflict-free.
Deep fundamental research + robust valuation discipline.
Built on more than 15 years of equity research, our framework combines quality assessment, intrinsic value estimation, and a sensible margin-of-safety approach.
Process—not predictions.
We don’t rely on guesswork or market timing. Instead, we focus on asset allocation, risk management, and long-term compounding.
Technology + Human Intelligence.
We believe a combination of both is essential for investing success. We constantly innovate and upgrade in-house tools, financial X-rays, and portfolio analytics so that our team of analysts and advisors are equipped with the best.
Partner with Clients.
We follow a DIWM (Do-It-With-Me) approach where we partner clients in setting goals, financial planning, educating on our investing process and share decision-enabling resources transparently with our clients who retain control on execution.

Our Approach: Ensuring compounding work its magic on client portfolio.

MoneyWorks4Me ensures this through:

Investing in stocks, mutual funds, debt, and gold
Quality-at-Reasonable-Price way of investing in stocks
Constructing Direct Stock Portfolios with Core, Booster, and Amplifier stocks
A Mutual Fund Portfolio that delivers consistent out-performance and meaningful diversification (low overlap)
Periodic review and rebalancing
Clear Buy-Sell-Hold, and Position-sizing frameworks

Name of the IA registered with SEBI:	The Alchemists Ark Pvt. Ltd.
Logo:
Trade/Brand Name of IA:	MoneyWorks4Me Investment Advisers
Brand Logo:
SEBI Registration Number:	INA000013323 Validity – May 16, 2019 – Perpetual
Registration:	Non-Individual
BSE Enlistment No:	1187
Address:	B-101, Signet Corner Building, Balewadi Phata, Baner, Pune, Maharashtra 411045
Compliance officer Details:	Name: Shrikant Jagtap Email: shrikant.jagtap@moneyworks4me.com Telephone: +919860359463 Address: Same as IA
Grievance Officer Details:	Name: Mukta Vaze Email: mukta.vaze@moneyworks4me.com Telephone: +91 98609 19463 Address: Same as IA
Principal Officer Details:	Name: Atharva Bhide Email: atharva.bhide@moneyworks4me.com Telephone: +91 91758 99463 Address: Same as IA
Standard Warning:	Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.
Disclaimer:	Registration granted by SEBI, enlistment with exchange and certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors.