The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has raised prospects of India’s economy by pegging contraction at 9.9%, against 10.2% it projected in September for the current financial year (FY21).
It forecasted that the economy would rebound to 8% in the next fiscal year and 5% a year later, but gross domestic product (GDP) loss would be substantial. With fiscal deficit at around 16% of GDP, it expected the Union Budget for 2021-22 (FY22) to be cautious on stimulus. However, it called for more fiscal measures to mitigate the hardships arising from Covid-19.
It saw limited scope of further easing of monetary stance by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) due to high inflation, but expected further cut in the policy rate around the turn of the current fiscal year due to easing of supply of food items. Besides, it said the world economy will bounce back to pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2021, even as it warned that recovery will be uneven across the countries and risks remain.
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