Crisil revises upwards FY21 GDP contraction estimate to 7.7%

15 Dec 2020 Evaluate

Terming lower government spending as a ‘constraint’ for growth, Ratings agency Crisil in its latest report has revised upwards its FY21 Gross domestic product (GDP) contraction estimate to 7.7 percent from the earlier expectation of 9 percent. It noted that a faster-than-expected revival in activity in the second quarter, which continues into the festive season, is one of the reasons for the upward revision. It also said that the coronavirus disease (covid-19) pandemic, which has pushed the economy into contraction mode, will result in a permanent loss of 12 percent in real GDP terms.

According to the report, after its initial expectation of 9.5 percent GDP contraction in FY21, the Reserve Bank revised up its estimate to 7.5 percent earlier this month. It said other analysts have also revised upwards their projections as the unlocking of economy led to higher activities. It also stated that inadequate fiscal spending remains a constraint for economic growth, and pointed out a possible second wave of covid-19 afflictions, uncertainty regarding availability of vaccine, and hiccups in global economic revival due to resurgence of cases as factors which call for caution.

However, the agency said that the GDP will grow by 10 percent in FY22 on a very low base of previous fiscal year. It noted that the newer estimate on a lower contraction has considered a better than expected growth in manufacturing sector in the second quarter, lighter restrictions as people's attitudes shift to learning to live with the virus and a flattening of the infection curve. It has also considered that fiscal policy support, which hitherto remains inadequate to revive demand could be forthcoming.

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