India’s GDP to shrink 7.8% in FY21; recession to end in Q4: ICRA

18 Dec 2020 Evaluate

Domestic rating agency ICRA in its latest report is expecting that the technical recession in the country's economy to end in the fourth quarter of the current fiscal (Q4FY21), limiting the contraction in the Gross domestic product (GDP) to 7.8 percent in the financial year 2021. In the second quarter of financial year 2021, GDP contracted 7.5 percent as against a decline of 23.9 percent in the April-June quarter.

With a steady performance of the agricultural sector and a lagged recovery in the contact-intensive parts of the services sector, the agency forecasts a small contraction of one per cent in the Indian GDP in the third quarter of financial year 2021. It also said healthy procurement and a favourable outlook for the rabi season, as well as greater visibility of an approaching COVID-19 vaccine rollout, will strengthen demand and economic activity in the fourth quarter of financial year 2021.

After the NSO had released the GDP data for the second quarter in financial year 2021, ICRA had projected the GDP contraction in financial year 21 to range between 7-9 per cent. With the updated projections for Q3 and Q4 financial year 2021, it has now pegged GDP contraction in financial year 2021 at 7.8 per cent. It further said that the spending seen during the festive season was driven by pent-up demand, and consumption is yet to fully stabilise in various sectors. It added that while many indicators have displayed growth in the ongoing quarter relative to a weak performance in the same period in FY2020, volumes still remain below FY2019 levels in a number of sectors, highlighting that a full recovery remains somewhat distant.

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