Ind-Ra revises projection for economic contraction to 7.8% for current fiscal

28 Dec 2020 Evaluate

India Ratings has revised its projections for economic contraction to 7.8 per cent for current fiscal (FY21) from the earlier expectation of 11.8 per cent due to easing Covid-19 headwinds and better than expected numbers in the second quarter of the current financial year. The rating and research agency expected FY22 growth to be 9.6 per cent, mainly due to the weak base of FY21.

It said that while the headwinds emanating from Covid-related challenges are unlikely to go away till mass vaccination becomes a reality, the economic agents and economic activities have not only learnt to live with it, but are also adjusting swiftly to the post Covid world. Ind-Ra projections are close to the RBI's expectation of 7.5 per cent GDP growth rate in the current financial year.

The economy contracted an unprecedented 23.9 per cent in the first quarter of FY21. However, the contraction dropped to 7.5 per cent in the second quarter, much lower than what was expected by most experts. Ind-Ra now expects GDP to contract 0.8 per cent in the third quarter and grow by 0.3 per cent in the fourth quarter of FY21 against its earlier projection of the economy to start growing in the fourth quarter of the next financial year.

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