The rating agency ICRA in its latest report has said that banks' gross non-performing assets (NPAs) and net NPAs are expected to rise to 10.1-10.6 percent and 3.1-3.2 percent, respectively by March 2021 from 7.9 percent and 2.2 percent, respectively as of September 2020. However, it said net NPAs and credit provisions will subsequently trend lower in 2021-22 as banks have reported strong collections on their loan portfolio with most of them reporting collections of over 90 percent.
The report further said the loan restructuring requests are much lower than previously estimated, supported by sharper than expected improvement in economic activities as well liquidity support through the government's emergency credit line guarantee scheme. It has revised its loan restructuring estimate downwards to 2.5-4.5 percent of advances as against 5-8 percent estimated earlier. It said with expectations of sustained collections and lower restructuring, the asset quality is expected to improve further with net NPA declining to 2.4-2.6 per cent by March 2022. It added that this will lead to lower credit provisions and better profitability in FY22.
The agency further said the credit provisions are estimated to decline to 1.8-2.4 percent of advances during 2021-22 from an estimate of 2.2-3.1 percent in the ongoing fiscal and 3.1 percent in 2019-20, which will lead to improvement in return on equity (RoE) for banks. It pointed out that low interest rates, improved business volumes, better job prospects and income levels could also stimulate credit demand next year. It added that this coupled with better competitive positioning of banks vis-a -vis other lenders driven by steep decline in cost of deposits could improve bank credit growth to 6-7 percent in next fiscal from an estimated 3.9-5.2 percent in 2020-21 and 6.1 percent in 2019-20.
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