GDP of India likely to contract by 7.7% in 2020-21 due to COVID-19 pandemic: NSO

08 Jan 2021 Evaluate

The National Statistical Office (NSO) in its first advanced estimates of national income has stated that gross domestic product (GDP) of India is likely to contract by a record 7.7% during 2020-21 as the COVID-19 pandemic severely hit the key manufacturing and services segments. Amid overall decline in economic activities, some respite was provided by the agriculture sector and utility services like power and gas supply, which have been projected to post positive growth during the current fiscal ending March 2021. As per the data, real GDP or GDP at Constant Prices (2011-12) in the year 2020-21 is likely to attain a level of Rs 134.40 lakh crore, as against the Provisional Estimate of GDP for the year 2019-20 of Rs 145.66 lakh crore. The growth in real GDP during 2020-21 is estimated at -7.7% as compared to the growth rate of 4.2% in 2019-20.

NSO also estimated the Real Gross Value Added (GVA) at basic prices at Rs 123.39 lakh crore in 2020-21, as against Rs 133.01 lakh crore in 2019-20, showing a contraction of 7.2 percent. GVA does not factor in net taxes. GVA in the key manufacturing sector is likely to see a contraction of 9.4% during 2020-21 as compared to a flat growth of 0.03% in the year ago period. 'Mining and quarrying', and 'trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting' GVAs are likely to contract by 12.4% and 21.4%, respectively. The construction sector too is projected to contract by 12.6%, 'public adminstration, defence and other services' by 3.7%, and 'financial, real estate, and professional services' by 0.8%.

On other hand, 'agriculture, forestry and fishing' sector has been projected to grow at 3.4% during the fiscal. The sector had posted a growth of 4% in 2019-20. Similarly, 'electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services' is likely to post a growth of 2.7% during the year ending March 2021. This compares with 4.1% expansion during 2019-20. Besides, the per capita net national income (NNI) at current prices is estimated at Rs 1,26,968, showing a contraction of 5.4%, as compared to Rs 1,34,226 during 2019-20 with a growth rate of 6.1%. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at current prices is estimated at Rs 47.23 lakh crore in 2020-21 as against Rs 54.72 lakh crore in 2019-20. At constant (2011-12) prices, the GFCF is estimated at Rs 37.07 lakh crore in 2020-21 as against Rs 43.34 lakh crore in 2019-20.

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