India’s real GDP to grow by 10.1% in FY2022: ICRA

12 Jan 2021 Evaluate

Domestic rating agency -- ICRA Ratings in its latest report has said it expects India’s real gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 10.1 per cent in FY2022. However, it said the value of GDP in the next financial year will only mildly surpass the level that had been recorded in FY2020. It said ‘after a 7.8 per cent pandemic-driven shrinkage in the ongoing fiscal (FY2021), India's real GDP is projected to record a growth of 10.1 per cent in FY2022. The seemingly-sharp expansion will be led by the continued normalisation in economic activities as the roll-out of COVID-19 vaccines gathers traction, as well as the low base’.

The agency expects a multi-speed recovery in FY2022, with the contact-intensive sectors, discretionary consumption and investment by the private sector trailing the rest of the economy, in the arduous march back to attaining, and sustaining, pre-COVID levels. It added on a sobering note, they project the aggregate value of the Indian GDP in real terms in FY2022, to be only mildly higher than the level recorded in FY2020.

ICRA expects the headline CPI inflation to decline to 4.6 per cent in FY2022 from 6.4 per cent in FY2021, while exceeding the mid-point of the Monetary Policy Committee's (MPC's) medium target of 4 per cent, for the third consecutive year. A favourable base would moderate the retail food inflation to an average of 4.7 per cent in FY2022 from 8 per cent in FY2021, despite the pressures from edible oils, and protein items such as pulses. With the CPI inflation expected to remain above the MPC's 4 per cent target during FY2022, the agency expects an extended pause for the repo rate. The agency also expects the twin deficits to display a divergent trend in FY2022.

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