CRISIL projects CPI Inflation at 6.4% for FY21

15 Jan 2021 Evaluate

Rating agency CRISIL has projected CPI Inflation at 6.4% for fiscal 2021 (FY21).  It mentioned that after eight months above the Reserve Bank of India (RBI's) target band of 2-6%, Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation was finally back in range, declining for the second straight month to a below-consensus 4.6% in December, from 6.9% in November. Average CPI inflation during April-December now measures 6.6%, down from the April-November average of 6.9%.

According to CRISIL, not only did CPI inflation fall on-month, aided by a massive decline in food prices, but the high base effect of last year also helped pull down headline inflation. But while core inflation softened marginally, fuel inflation went up in December. It said Core inflation, i.e., headline sans food and beverages, and fuel and light, softened only marginally at 5.6%, just 15 basis points (bps) lower than November, suggesting continuing stickiness in core inflation. This could be reflective of mild improvement in demand conditions on one hand and rising input prices on the other. Core inflation has a weight of 47.3%, and is a sizeable contributor to headline inflation.

It noted that clothing and footwear inflation rose to 3.5% in December, from 3.4% in November. Another category that saw upward inflation price pressure was recreation and amusement that rose to 5.2% from 4.5%. Health inflation also rose to 6.0% from 5.6%. That said, inflation softened in idiosyncratic categories, i.e. personal care and effects (to 11.7% from 12.0%) and transport and communication (to 9.3% from 11.1%).

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