Economic activity tentatively returning to pre-Covid normalcy: ICRA

19 Jan 2021 Evaluate

ICRA in its latest report has said that economic activity recorded a broad-based improvement in December as against November, showing a return of demand. It said most of the indicators have displayed a year-on-year (y-o-y) expansion in December 2020, which signals a ‘tentative return to pre-COVID normalcy’. It can be noted that there have been apprehensions about the sustainability of the demand after a pick-up in economic activity during the festivities. December was the first month after the busy activity season.

The report said ‘Economic activity rebounded solidly in December 2020 relative to the previous month, reflecting a pick-up in demand after the temporary post-festive slack and year-end discounts’. It said the waning of the unfavourable base effect related to fewer working days in November 2020 contributed to the improvement in December 2020, and added that a pick-up in the generation of GST e-way bills, and the considerable expansion in rail freight traffic, offer encouraging signals of the pace of revival in economic activity.

According to the report, as many as 12 of the 15 high-frequency indicators tracked by the agency recorded an improved year-on-year performance in December 2020, relative to November 2020, including electricity generation, the output of passenger vehicles (PVs), motorcycles, vehicle registrations, and fuel consumption.

It pointed out that the year-on-year growth in the generation of GST e-way bills nearly doubled to a robust 15.9 per cent in December 2020 from 8.1 per cent in the previous month, with a distinct pick-up in the second half of the former, added that the robust performance of e-way bills in December 2020 suggests that the GST collections will remain healthy in January as well.

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