SEBI Reg. Investment Advisor

Download App

MoneyWorks4Me

ICRA projects 5% fiscal deficit for FY22

27 Jan 2021 Evaluate

Rating agency ICRA has projected a 5 per cent fiscal deficit for the next financial year (FY22). Calling for a growth-oriented Budget, it warned against sharp fiscal tightening by the Centre and the states as it would temper the economic recovery. For the current financial year 2020-21, it forecasts a 7.5 per cent fiscal gap for the Centre and 4.7 per cent for the states, totalling the combined fiscal deficits at 12.2 per cent. It said sharp fiscal tightening should be avoided in 2021-22 by the Centre and the states as it would temper the weak recovery, and normalising revenue will anyway lower the fiscal strain in the coming year.

The agency sees the general government’s fiscal deficit at 8.5 per cent in 2021-22 -- 5 per cent  for the Centre and 3.5 per cent for the states, which would involve a net and gross market borrowings at Rs 16 lakh crore and Rs 20.5 lakh crore, respectively. But, total liabilities of the Centre are projected to worsen from 49.3 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in March 2020 to 59 per cent of GDP in March 2021, before easing mildly to 57 per cent of GDP in March 2022. In absolute terms, due to the massive revenue shortage, the Centre''s fiscal deficit will widen to Rs 14.5 lakh crore in 2020-21.

In 2021-22, a revenue deficit of 3.5 per cent of GDP and a fiscal deficit of around 5 per cent may allow enough space for prioritising health expenditure, vaccine roll-out as well as capital spending, based on the revenue rebound that is widely expected. Given the continuing uncertainty, tax changes should be avoided at this juncture, and the focus should instead be on maximising disinvestment proceeds. In terms of absolute numbers, the rating agency expects a net tax revenue of Rs 15.5 lakh crore, non-tax revenue of Rs 2.5 lakh crore and the disinvestment proceeds of Rs 1.5 lakh crore in 2021-22.

A revenue deficit of 3.5 per cent or Rs 7.8 lakh crore and a fiscal deficit of Rs 11.1 lakh crore will imply a space for revenue expenditure and capital expenditure at Rs 25.8 lakh crore and Rs 4.8 lakh crore, respectively, in 2021-22. A fiscal deficit of 3.5 per cent of gross state domestic product for the states in 2021-22 may allow them to prioritise a portion of capex that was deferred during the pandemic. It added that the deficit will also provide some funds towards projects under the national infrastructure pipeline.

About MoneyWorks4Me

MoneyWorks4Me is a SEBI-registered Investment Adviser (IA) dedicated to helping investors build long-term wealth through transparent, research-driven, conflict-free guidance. Founded in 2008, we started our journey as a Research Analyst (RA), providing deep fundamental analysis, intrinsic value insights, and long-term investing frameworks for Indian equities. In 2017, we transitioned to a full-fledged SEBI-registered Investment Adviser, strengthening our commitment to acting as a fiduciary—always putting the investor’s interest first.

Our Vision

To become India’s most trusted, research-powered fiduciary advisory platform—where every investor, regardless of experience, can make calm, confident, and well-reasoned investment decisions.

What Makes MoneyWorks4Me Different

Our Approach: Ensuring compounding work its magic on client portfolio.

MoneyWorks4Me ensures this through:

×