India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) in its latest report has said that the Union Budget 2021 must redirect the government focus in resolving demand-side issues by moving away from fixing supply side problem which has been the focus since March when the coronavirus disease (covid-19) pandemic began to pummel the economy.
According to the report, the nationwide lockdown has resulted in the economy tanking 23.9 percent in the June quarter but made a dramatic recovery with the contraction improving to just 7.5 percent in Q2 and is likely to re-enter the green zone in the second half which may help the economy close FY21 with a contraction of 7.5-8 percent. It can be noted that since 2012, consumption demand has been the one of the biggest missing links in an economy that was nearly overheated after the heavy stimulus doses following the 2008 global financial crisis, making companies eschew investments and halt expansions, resulting in lower wage increases and job creation leading to a massive fall in consumption demand.
The report further warned that even if the supply-side bottlenecks get restored on account of various government/RBI measures it may soon run into difficulties due to the lack of adequate demand for goods and services. It noted that the economy has shown some green shoots with several high frequency indicators reaching the pre-pandemic level of production, bolstered by a combination of festive/pent-up demand. But, it said after two consecutive months of positive growth, the factory output contracted in November, showing the fragility of the recovery. It added that an appropriate demand-side measure therefore is as important as supply-side measures.
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