Slower consolidation to constrain India’s fiscal strength over medium term: Moody's

04 Feb 2021 Evaluate

Rating agency Moody's has said that India's fiscal deficit projections are higher than expected and slower consolidation will constrain its fiscal strength over the medium term. It expects India's nominal gross domestic product (GDP) growth to rise to closer to 17 percent in fiscal 2021, higher than 14.4 percent projected in the Budget.

The US-based agency has stated that the budget's focus on higher capital spending, financial sector reform and asset sales will help stimulate growth, but implementation risks remain and slower fiscal consolidation will constrain fiscal strength over the medium term. It noted that as per the glide path for fiscal consolidation announced in Budget, the government plans to bring down the fiscal deficit to 4.5 per cent of GDP by 2025-26 fiscal.

Moody's said greater transparency on off-balance-sheet food subsidy expenditure and more conservative revenue assumptions have contributed to the government's higher deficit number for fiscal 2020. India has budgeted a fiscal deficit of 9.5 per cent of GDP for the current fiscal ending March. It also said the financial sector will undergo some credit positive reform under the new budget. Banks will benefit from the establishment of an asset reconstruction company to resolve legacy problem loans, and public sector banks additionally from a Rs 20,000 crore capital infusion.

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