India's high fiscal deficit to pose challenge in lowering debt to GDP ratio: Fitch

11 Feb 2021 Evaluate

Fitch Ratings has said that India's high fiscal deficit would pose a challenge in lowering the debt to GDP ratio, which is expected to rise above 90 per cent in the next five years. It said the country entered the coronavirus disease (covid-19) pandemic with little fiscal headroom from a rating perspective. Its general government debt/GDP ratio stood at 72 percent in 2019, against a median of 42 percent for 'BBB' rated peers.

Fitch further said the budget points to a loosening of fiscal policy to support the country's ongoing economic recovery from the pandemic and will consequently lead to a rise in public debt. It noted that the debt/GDP trajectory is core to its sovereign rating assessment, meaning higher deficits and a slower consolidation path will make India's medium-term growth outlook take on a more critical role in its analysis.

It said ‘the budget's deficit projections for the fiscal years ending March 2022 (FY22) to FY26 are about 1pp (percentage point) a year above our previous estimates between, which could make it more challenging to put debt/GDP on a downward trajectory’. India has exceeded its fiscal deficit target of 3.5 percent in the current fiscal by a wide margin due to higher spending to stimulate the economy amid the pandemic.

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