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Residential real estate witnessing K-shaped recovery on account of accelerated consolidation: ICRA

23 Feb 2021 Evaluate

Domestic rating agency ICRA in its latest report has said that residential real estate is witnessing a K-shaped recovery on account of accelerated consolidation, where access to credit and demand consolidation has helped large players grow handsomely even as their smaller sized rivals struggle. The smaller sized real estate companies' woes will ‘weigh heavily’ on the sector as a whole and such players hold an 80 percent market share. It also pointed out that the large, listed players almost doubled their market share in the current year to above 21 percent in the first nine months of the financial year 2021 (FY21) as against the financial year 2020 (FY20).

According to the report, a 'K-shaped recovery' is representative of inherent inequalities, where the rich get richer, even as the marginalised slide down. It said the phrase has been used a lot by observers in the aftermath of the pandemic, which has hurt the most for the poor and migrant populations. It also said home-buyers had been leaning towards developers with an established track record of on-time and quality project completion even prior to the onset of the pandemic. It added that this had resulted in large, listed players reporting healthy sales and collections in recent years, despite the prevailing liquidity crisis and unfavourable supply-demand dynamics.

For the broader market, the agency said COVID-19 triggered one of the worst demand crashes in recorded history, with housing sales volumes witnessing a Y decline of 62 per cent during Q1FY21 across the top eight cities of the country, which came down to 24 per cent by Q3. It noted that overall operating cash flows for most developers, including the listed players, are expected to witness moderation in the current financial year, resulting in increased reliance on available liquidity and/or refinancing to meet committed outflows.

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