Rating agency, Crisil in its latest report has said that bank credit is seen growing 400-500 bps to 9-10 per cent in the next financial year (FY22) on the back of timely government and regulatory measures this fiscal, which helped the economy to recover faster than expected. In the current fiscal, bank credit is expected to rise 4-5 per cent despite the sharpest contraction in the economy since Independence. It added that the economy is likely to grow at 11 per cent in FY22.
Crisil’s Krishnan Sitaraman said while bank credit growth had contracted 0.8 per cent in the first half of this fiscal, it recovered sharply in the third quarter by growing 3 per cent sequentially. In the fourth quarter, too, it should clock 3 per cent sequential growth. In June 2020, Crisil had pegged bank credit growth to be at 0-1 per cent this fiscal. He added that the government measures, including the Rs 3 lakh crore emergency credit line guarantee scheme (ECLGS), have been supportive.
In the first half of this fiscal, the pandemic forced borrowers and lenders to tread cautiously, leading to a contraction in credit pick up. But a faster-than-expected uptick in economic activity since the relaxation of lockdowns, and pent-up and festive season demand helped thereafter. In absolute terms, net credit rose to Rs 2.3 lakh crore in the first nine months of FY21, of which disbursements under ECLGS was Rs 1.6 lakh crore in this period. Banks also deployed Rs 1.4 lakh crore via targeted long-term repo operation and partial credit guarantee scheme, serving as credit substitutes.
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