A joined survey carried out by FICCI-IBA has stated that asset quality of banks, which saw some improvement in the second half of 2020, is likely to worsen during the first six months of 2021. The survey was conducted on 20 banks, including public sector, private sector and foreign banks, representing about 59 per cent of the banking industry, as classified by asset size.
The survey showed in the current round of the survey, half of the respondent banks reported a decline in NPAs during the second half of 2020. About 78 percent of participating state-run banks have cited a reduction in NPA levels. However, in terms of outlook, nearly 68 percent of respondent bankers expect the NPA levels to be above 10 percent in the first half of 2021. Close to 37 percent of respondents expect NPA levels to be upwards of 12 percent.
It further stated that some of the high NPA risk sectors identified by majority of respondent bankers in the current round of survey include tourism and hospitality, MSME, aviation and restaurants. Around 55 per cent of respondents believe NPAs to rise substantially in the tourism and hospitality sector, while another 45 per cent reported that NPAs are likely to increase moderately in this sector. Another high NPA risk sector reported in the current round of survey is the MSME sector, with 84 per cent respondents expecting an increase in NPAs in this sector. Close to 89 per cent respondents also expect the restaurant sector to see an increase in NPAs, though only 26 per cent expect NPAs to increase substantially in this segment.
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