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Rising COVID-19 infections have reignited uncertainties on near-term economic outlook: Icra

26 Mar 2021 Evaluate

A domestic rating agency -- Icra Ratings in its latest report said that the rising number of COVID-19 infections in recent weeks have reignited uncertainties related to the near-term outlook. It added that the uncertainty will persist over the next few months until the vaccines become available in India for all adults. The rating agency said Although the GDP has ‘reverted to pre-COVID levels in Q3 and Q4 FY21, uncertainty related to the near-term outlook has risen considerably in the recent weeks, following the spate of new COVID-19 infections, which have necessitated localised restrictions’.

Icra’s principal economist Aditi Nayar said the rapid economic recovery witnessed in India in H2 CY2020 has given way to an uneven performance amongst the lead indicators in the last two months. She said ‘One year post the lockdown, a favourable base effect will optically boost the performance of most sectors in March 2021’. She added that the GDP will register a 2 per cent growth in the ongoing fourth quarter of 2021.

The agency forecasts GDP growth in the financial year 2022 in a range of 10-11 per cent, and a key upside to the projection is a faster-than-expected pick-up in government spending in the coming fiscal year. The key risks to the recovery are the sustenance of the latest wave of COVID-19 infections and its spread to additional states, the existing vaccines not being effective enough against new variants of the infection, and a spike in commodity prices to a level that starts to constrain demand. The agency warned if the trend of increasing infections and localised lockdowns proliferates, it would temper the extent of the base effect-led recovery anticipated in the immediate term, and may lead to some supply-side disruptions.

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