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India's economic output in 2021 likely to remain below 2019 level: UNESCAP

31 Mar 2021 Evaluate

The United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNESCAP) in its latest report has said that India's economic output in 2021 is expected to remain below the 2019 level despite roll-out of the vaccine to deal with the menace of the coronavirus pandemic. It also noted that the country is estimated to record an economic growth of 7 percent in 2021-22, over a contraction of 7.7 percent witnessed in the previous fiscal on account of the pandemic's impact on normal business activity.

Observing that India entered the pandemic with subdued GDP growth and investment, the report said, following one of the most stringent lockdowns in the world, the economic disruptions that the country experienced mounted in the second quarter of 2020. It also said that a subsequent change in lockdown policies and success in reducing infection rates supported an impressive economic turnaround in the third quarter. However, it said the pace of recovery moderated in the fourth quarter with estimated year-on-year growth still close to zero.

For a more robust and inclusive recovery, the report calls for a more synchronised COVID-19 vaccination programme across countries and highlights opportunities to leverage regional cooperation. At the same time, it recommends that fiscal and monetary support should be sustained, as premature tightening could increase long-term scars.

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