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Reimposition of virus management measures following surge in Covid infections to dent economic activity: Moody’s

15 Apr 2021 Evaluate

Rating agency Moody’s in its latest report ‘Second wave of coronavirus infections poses credit-negative threat to economic recovery’ has said the reimposition of virus management measures following a surge in Covid infections will dent economic activity and could hurt market and consumer sentiment, warning of a threat to recovery. However, it said targeted containment measures, versus last year’s complete lockdown, and rapid vaccination will soften the hit on the economy.

The rating agency sees vaccination as the key tool to manage the second wave, but warned that shortages could slow inoculation drive. It retained its forecast of double-digit growth in India’s gross domestic product (GDP) for FY22. In February, Moody’s had revised India’s FY22 growth outlook to 13.7% from 10.8% estimated earlier while maintaining sovereign credit rating at Baa3 (negative), the lowest investment grade rating.

It mentioned the announced countermeasures to combat the second wave - some of which are due to remain in place at least until the end of April - risk weakening the economic recovery. India has been reporting a record increase in Covid-19 infections with the daily case count nearing twice the highs reached in September last year.

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