Recovery path for several sectors delayed owing to second Covid wave: India Ratings and Research

04 May 2021 Evaluate

Domestic agency India Ratings and Research in its latest report has said that it expects the overall recovery path to be pushed back for most of the service-oriented sectors to FY22, owing to a major supply-side disruption from the second wave of COVID-19 infections. It also expects the impact of the pandemic to spill over in FY23, with moderation in growth given a slowdown in consumption and investment demand outlook and smoothening out of supply chain issues.

It said ‘Although debt restructurings have been availed by a relatively a smaller number of entities in FY21, given other forms of fiscal or monetary support from the government such as Emergency Credit Line Guarantee Scheme, FY23 is likely to test the credit profiles of entities with a pre-existing debt-heavy balance sheet or those facing ongoing stress on cash flows.’ Besides, it expects an overall median growth of 6% for corporates in FY22 over FY20 and 21.2% over FY21. This is an increase from the agency’s earlier estimate of a median growth of 4.4%.

Also as per the agency’s assessment the discretionary spends have been worst hit. Realty, commercial retail is likely to be below expectation, given concerns about the impact of the pandemic on the upcoming providers of office space who are likely to struggle, as office offtake may be under pressure due to the continued prevalence of work-from-home culture. It noted sectors linked to consumer discretionary expenditure and exports are likely to witness a lower-than-expected improvement. Within these sectors, airlines, real estate residential and hotels would be the most severely impacted and may not see recovery until second half of FY22.

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