India's economic recovery to be hit by COVID-19 surge: S&P Global Ratings

05 May 2021 Evaluate

S&P Global Ratings has said an ongoing second wave of COVID-19 infections in India could hurt its near-term economic recovery and possibly diminish growth for the full year. Shaun Roache, chief economist, Asia Pacific at S&P, said India's COVID wave will inevitably hit the recovery and could push growth below 10%. The longer it takes to regain control, the greater the permanent damage, especially as policy space is limited.

S&P currently has a ‘BBB-' rating on India with a stable outlook, the lowest investment grade and expects India's economy to grow 11% in the year that started April 1 following a projected record contraction of 8% in the previous year. Roche said the shock of the first quarter is likely to carry on through the rest of the year and the impact on the GDP could be around one to three percentage points.

The rating agency said India had been showing strong recovery momentum since September last year and until March/April of 2021 before the massive surge in cases prompted localised lockdowns and mobility restrictions.

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