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India likely to breach fiscal deficit target in FY22 amid revenue shortfall: Fitch Solutions

07 May 2021 Evaluate

Amid revenue shortfall, Fitch Solutions in its latest report has said that India is likely to breach its fiscal deficit target in the financial year to March 2022. The government is targeting a deficit between revenue it earns and what it spends at 6.8 per cent of the gross domestic product (GDP) in FY22 (April 2021 to March 2022). Fitch Solutions forecasts the Indian central government deficit to come in at 8.3 per cent of GDP in FY22. It had previously projected a fiscal deficit of 8 per cent.

As per the report, central government expenditure is likely to be around the project of Rs 34.8 lakh crore as it looks to maintain its high pandemic-period spending so as to bolster pace of economic recovery. Against this, revenue are likely to come in at Rs 16.5 lakh crore, down from government estimate of Rs 17.8 lakh crore on the back of an impaired outlook for India's economic recovery in FY22 as a result of the ongoing health crisis. It did not expect the government to significantly expand spending beyond what has been budgeted.

Besides, Fitch Solutions noted that its less optimistic view on the Indian economy was also reflected in its real GDP growth forecast of 9.5 per cent in FY22, a full percentage point below the government's 10.5 per cent projection.

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